Candlestick Trading Patterns- The Hanging Man, the Hammer and the Spinning Top!
Mar 8, 2010 Uncategorized
Hanging Man and the Hammer are two different candlestick patterns. The patterns are not identical. Hanging Man is considered to be bearish and the Hammer is considered to be bullish.
How to spot the Hanging Man and the Hammer? These candlestick patterns are easy to spot on the chart. When you spot a very small candle body accompanied by a pretty long wick on the bottom, it is a Hanging Man if it appears at the top of the uptrend and it is a Hammer if it appears at the bottom of the downtrend.
Now suppose, you find the Hammer or the Hanging Man. What you need is to look for the confirmation the next day! Now, in most of the cases, you will also find a small wick on the top of the candle body.
If you think that you have spotted a Hanging Man appear on the top of an uptrend, wait for the next day’s opening price. If the opening day is lower than the last day’s close, you have spotted a true Hanging Man.
Similarly, if you spot a Hammer at the bottom of a downtrend, you need to confirm it with the opening price on the following day. If the opening price on the next day is higher than the closing price on the last day, the Hammer formed was a true Hammer.
When you trade candlestick patterns, you need to look for the confirmation on the following day to confirm that the candlestick pattern formed was indeed true. Once you have the confirmation signal, you can safely trade on that candlestick pattern. If you cannot get the confirmation, you should ignore that pattern considering it to be false. Most of these candlestick patterns are ideally suited for the daily charts.
Spinning Top is just like the Hanging Man and the Hammer. Spinning Top is a signal that the battle between the bulls and the bears ended in a draw. It will start next day again with ony side giving in. What this means is that an explosive move in the price action can take place the following day.
How to identify a SPINNING TOP? A Spinning Top has a very small candle body in the middle with two equal wicks on the top and the bottom. This pattern appears very frequently in the daily charts and can be highly profitable if spotted correctly.
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Shocking Stocks Short Selling Facts!
Mar 8, 2010 Uncategorized
Short Selling Stocks is one of the favorite day or swing trading strategy. Many traders short stocks. Now many stock brokers make it very easy for the investors and traders to short stocks. Now a days, most of the trading is being done online. When you sell a stock, a message will ask you whether you are selling stocks that you own or you are selling short. With one click, you tell the broker that you are short selling. The broker than goes about and arranges the shares for you to short sell. These shares are a loan to your account.
In some cases, the brokerage firm cannot borrow the shares as so many people have sold the stock short that there are no more shares to borrow. In that case, you will have to find another stock or use another strategy.
Now, shorting is one of the favorite strategies employed by day traders. A day trader may short stock on the mundane reason like its price had been going up for three days and it’s time to come down! Day traders are not fundamental traders. Day traders are simply interested in the daily volatility in the stock. Most even don’t do any financial or fundamental analysis of the companies whose stocks they are trading. Almost all are technicians or what you call technical analysis experts.
You have to be careful about the uptick rule as stock exchanges have rules in place to help maintain an upward bias in the stock market. What this means is that you can only short a stock when the last trade was a move up. In other words, you can’t short a stock that is moving down.
How much risky short selling can be? Well, in theory there is no stopping a stock price to reach the sky. So if you are wrong in your short selling decision, your loss can be catastrophic. But don’t worry, short sellers also use stop loss so if the price starts to move up, your position will get closed automatically by the stop loss order.
Now, don’t get caught in the market with short selling when good news spreads about the stock that you had shorted driving its price up. This is known as Short Squeeze. Once that happens, almost all short sellers get desperate to dump their stocks and exit but when they try to buy back the stock, they get more hurt as the prices go even higher and higher on rising demand for the stock in the market.
If you have already shorted that stock, you might get a call from your broker to return that stock immediately. In such a case, you will have to immediately return the stock even if it doesn’t make any sense to you!As said before, companies, investors and many brokers hate short sellers. They think that short sellers had intentionally driven down the stock prices. So sometimes, they will spread rumors of good news to create a momentary short squeeze. Sometimes, a campaign will be started by the owners of a particular stock instructing their brokers not to loan out their stocks to short sellers.
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Doji Candlestick Pattern-Something Unique And Highly Profitable!
Mar 7, 2010 Uncategorized
A Doji Candlestick Pattern is formed when the opening and the closing prices are the same. So, there is no stick on the candlestick. There are some variations but essentially a Doji is almost all wicks with no body. A Doji looks more like a cross rather than a candlestick pattern.
So for a Doji to be truly formed on a trading day, throughtout the trading day heavy buying or selling may take place but at the end of the day, the price should be where it had been at the start. In other words, the opening and the closing prices should be the same for a Doji to be formed.
When a Doji is formed with the opening and the closing prices equal, it is a signal that the battle between the bulls and the bears had been a draw during the trading day. Soon, either the bulls or the bears are going to previal. In other words, a trend reversal is about to take place.
A Dragonfly Doji pattern is unique in the sense that the opening, closing and the high prices are all the same or equal. A Dragonfly Doji is formed when the stocks opens, trades down during first part of the day. During some part of the day, the price starts to climb again and eventually closing on the high which is the same as the open.
In other words, the open, the close and the high for the day are the same for the Dragonfly Doji to form. So when a Dragonfly Doji Pattern is formed, the bears had been in control of the market at the start. But at some point in the trading day, the bulls become active and step in. Bulls start buying. This takes the prices up and at the end of the day, the security price ends up right where it had started.
The low of the Dragonfly Doji can be considered a near term support level because it is clear that the buyers stepped in at that level and turned the trend from down to up. Dragonfly Doji is a bullish candlestick pattern.
The second important variation to the Doji is the Bearish Gravestone Doji. This pattern is formed when the open and close of the day is equal to the low of the day. This is something opposite to the Dragonfly Doji where the open, the close and the high were equal. When a Bearish Gravestone Doji Pattern is formed, it is a signal that a prolonged downtrend is about to start in the market.
As said before, this pattern is rare but very easy to spot on the chart. When it does form, get ready for a trend change!
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Etf Trading Strategies: The Truth Behind Trading
Mar 5, 2010 Uncategorized
When you jump into the etf trading market its imperative that you have a set of etf trading strategies. This is imperative if you want to develop a good set of trading skills in the etf market. You can also purchase a book on etf trading strategies. There are so many things you can learn from reading what others have to say about trading and you can save a lot of time and money by learning from other people’s experience.
If you want to come up with a good solid and winning ETF trading strategies you need to first have a bit of experience in the ETF market. It will also do a great deal of good if you have some one or somebody who can teach you the about ETF trading strategies. The basis of a good ETF trading strategy is that it takes many things including good information into consideration.
Learning from other people’s experience is good because it will save you a lot of money, and time when it comes to developing a winning strategy. The best way to learn is from stories of other people’s success as well as their mistakes. Your job is to go and use what they tell you to develop your own unique trading style which can be adapted to the every changing etf trading market.
The market is constantly changing as each participant in the market changes their methods as well as their objectives drive the change in the market. There are times when the entire market may follow a trend and then there are times when trading against the trend will have its advantages. Sometimes trading with very strict set of profit targets will do the work for you.
Traders who have been trading for a while will begin to develop their own personal form and style of trading. This will largely be based on their experience as well as the markets they have chosen.
The ETF trading strategies you come up with needs to be designed in a way that makes it so flexible that you can would it to your taste and requirements. You also need to be able to accomplish this as soon as possible before the market takes another turn.
People who have traded and have made alto of money often fail later on because they were not able to keep up with the changing market. So you also need to find a way to compensate for that.
You need to develop a sense for the market and feel the change in the market. This is something you can learn but it take time. Effective etf trading strategies are flexible and suit your mindset and style.
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Harami And The Harami Cross Candlestick Patterns Can Be Highly Profitable!
Feb 28, 2010 Stock Investment
There are simple as well as complex candlestick patterns. There are single stick, two stick as well as three stick candlestick patterns. Harami is a two stick candlestick pattern. Two stick patterns take two days to form on daily charts. A Harami is formed whent the first day candle is longer than the second day candle. Harami can be bullish as well as bearish!
A bullish Harami candlestick pattern is formed when the first day candle is bearish. Rather the first day is very bearish and occurs on a downtrend. But on the second day, the bulls come into action and try to move the prices higher. But bulls are not very successful. The second day close is still lower than the first day open and the first day’s high is never surpassed. However, the second day is a signal that the bulls have started to take the stand and stop the current downtrend.
The second day is still a down day that follows a bearish trend. On the second day, the open is higher than the close of the first day. The bulls ruled the second day as the close is higher than the open.
Bulls and bears are always fighting with each other for the control of the market. When a bullish Harami is formed what this means is that the bulls are still cautious about their success and fear that the bears might return to take the prices lower again. However, when this does not happen, it gives confidence to the bulls encouraging more buying in the market and the reversal of the trend.
Now, like most of the candlestick patterns, a Harami can fail. What this means is that you need to confirm it with the price action on the following day. Always place the stop loss first when you trade. When you spot a Harami, place the stop loss near the open of the second day.
Harami pattern has got few variations. On of them is the Bullish Harami Cross Pattern. Now,a Bullish Harami Cross is not formed very frequently. But when it does form, it means an sudden trend reversal. So you should act immediatetly when you spot it. The first day in case of a Bullish Harami Cross is a bearish candle. The signal day or the second day is a Bullish Doji with an open higher than the close of the first day and the close lower than the open of the first day.
The bearish Harami Pattern is the other way around. The first day candle is bullish but the second day candle is bearish with the open lower than the close of the first day and the close higher than the open of the first day. But this means is that bears have taken over the market and soon a new downtrend is going to develop.
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What Is Momentum Investing? How It Can Make You Rich?
Feb 28, 2010 Stock Investment
There is a difference between trading and investing. Trading is always short term while investing is long term. The time horizon in trading can be as short as a few minutes to a few days to a few weeks. Whereas in investing, the time horizon can be months to years. Many people day trade or swing trade stocks, currencies, futures, options, ETFs, commodities or other markets. In day trading, a trader opens a position and closes it in the same day making a quick profit. In swing trading, a trader tries to ride a trend in the market as long as it lasts. On the other hand, an investor is least pushed about the short term swings in the market. He or she has a long term time horizon like a few months to even a few years. This long time horizon matches their investment and financial goals!
Now a company’s stock may have a good long term prospects supported by strong fundamentals. But the stock may stay still for a long time before it catches the attention of the media and the investing public before it’s price get’s bid up. So an investor might have to wait for a long time before realizing a return on his or her investment. Many investors can learn a few tricks from day traders that can help them make a quick profit in a matter of days orn weeks instead of months or years.
Many investors when they fall in love with their investments on the long run forget this cardinal rule of trading that you have to cut your losses. Market least care who you are and how long you have been in it.There is a general problem with so many investors. They fall in love with their investment after doing so much research and committing so much time for the position to work. Now, day traders are always hit and run types. They have developed an innate sense of discipline among themselves that teaches them when to commit money to a trade and when to cut and run.
Now as a momentum investor, you need to look for securities that are going up in prices especially if accompanied by the underlying growth. What this means is that instead of buying low and selling high, what you will be doing is buying high and selling even higher.
When a security goes up in price with a strong demand underneath it, it said to have price momentum behind it! Now, as a long term investor, you should look for securities having momentum behind them just to avoid getting stuck with securities for months before they start moving. It pays to be patient. But it works even better when the money that you invested works for you while you wait.
Now, when the price of a stock or security increases because of strong demand, it is said to have momentum behind it. When, there is momentum behind a security, it means that it’s price will continue to icnrease as long as it has got momentum. This way by investing in stocks having momentum behind them, you avoid the risk of getting stuck in stocks that might not move for months and months.
Now, when doing momentum investing, you need to also do some fundamental research behind the company. As most of the momentum investing done during the dot com bubble was on hearsay without being supported by any strong fundamentals! However, if too many investors start practicing momentum investing, it sometimes leads to bubbles like the tech bubble that happened at the end of 1990s.
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Back Testing Your Trading System-Know These Shocking Limitations
Feb 27, 2010 Stock Investment
Your trading system needs thorough testing before you decide to trade live with it. A trading system might comprise of a set of indicators. You need to know how well your trading system and its set of indicators work in a particular market.
For this you can do back testing. Back testing is a method that uses historical data to test how well your indicators work in a particular market. You can use back testing software that enables you to look at the past market data and test how well the indicators and your trading system have worked in the past market.
Backtesting results are no guarantee that the trading system will perform well under live market conditions. Things that worked in the past might not work now. Similarly something that didn’t work in the past, may work now! You never know!There are many problems with historical data. There is no slippage in backtesting. Slippage is one of the most important problem that a trader faces while trading live. The other problem that the backtest ignores is the widening of spreads under volatile market conditions.
So when you look at back testing results, you should look at them with scepticism. But it doesn’t mean that backtesting is entirely useless! What we can say is that no two trades are exactly alike.
Back testing can give you a feel how a particular market behaves under certain conditions. Back testing can also spot you certain general characteristics of the market like the seasonal trends and market tendencies.
For example, some markets especially the commodities market is highly seasonal and cyclical in nature. We can take the example of agricultural commodities like wheat, grains,corn, cotton, coffee and stuff like that. In case of the stock market, there is much talk of the January Effect. Well, it is there no doubt about it. Some years, it is highly pronounced and others it is not that pronounced. Similarly stock prices tend to rise at the end of each month and the first few days of the new months. The reason for this is that many institutional investors tend to put the new funds to work at the end of the month and the beginning of the new month! Now in other markets, you might not find any seasonal trends. For example, there is very little seasonality in curreny market or the bond market.
Back testing can also help you establish the amount of time a particular market tends to run in a certain direction. For example, in case of US Dollar Index, its trend lines tend to last for months to years.
But to tell you the truth, backtesting can only give you a rough guess about the performance of the trading system under live trading conditions. There is no substitute for live trading results!
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Does James Connelly’s Penny Stock Prophet Forecasting Service Work?
Feb 24, 2010 Shares Investment
You will be familiar with the varieties of stock predicting services there are on the market which announce to help you find productive stocks to speculate in. While a number of these services perform as publicized in helping stockholders to find undervalued stocks to invest in, they don’t always help the investor in shielding his money once it has realized a gain in worth. People who are putting money in the stock exchange seeking a safe haven to grow their investments have been finding an unstable environment of late.
The current stock exchange atmosphere can be untrustworthy and merciless if you do not stay on your toes when investing. Recently, more speculators than not have witnessed how straightforward it can be to lose one quarter, one third or even half their portfolio because of the unsettled condition of the planet’s economy. If you’re currently making an investment in the stock markets, you may need to consider changing your method for at least a portion of your portfolio.
This is where a service like James Connelly’s Penny Stock prophet may provide an alternative solution for those wishing to protect their investments. In choppy investment waters,eg the current upset situation in the markets, it is often best to consider executing a faster production time with your investments in order to realize and keep hold of the gains that may be made through investing in the right stocks at the right time.
With the Penny Stock prophet, you are given information about specific micro or little cap stocks (otherwise known as a “penny stock”) that are positioned to make a major jump in value . If you can get into and out of the trade in the right time frames, you stand to realize a considerable gain on your investment trade.
Connelly chose to focus in particular on hot penny stocks due to their potential for making major movements in their worth which results in high % gains on his investments.
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What Are Trend Following Indicators?
Feb 23, 2010 Stock Investment
Trend following indicators is a way that many people invest in stocks. It’s a strategy that is used which will use long-term moves on how markets have done in the past to figure out what to trade and what to keep.
With this method you will watch the way that the market goes and invest according to those movements in the past on the stocks. You will look at current market price for the stock, moving averages, and also any breakouts that have happened in the past.
Traders aren’t forecasting how the market is going to flow, but they will follow a set trend that has been going on. Looking into three components to figure out the strategy. Price of the stock currently, market volatility and equity levels. They will know before getting the stock how much will be bought and how much they will spend on it.
This type of method will be used only after the stock has established a trend. In other words not on a new stock that hasn’t yet established any type of trend to it. Price will be one of the main considerations in this method. A person who trades through this method may use indicators to figure out which way the stock will go next.
They should know when the trend will continue until, and how much they will trade during that time. If the market becomes more volatile they will reduce the levels of trading this will be to cut losses. Price and time are the most important things for trend following indicators.
The following questions will be able to be answered when you use this type of method. Shares that will be traded during the trend, how to enter the market and at what time. Risk to be taken on each trade, cutting of unprofitable stocks, and how to get rid of profitable stocks.
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How to Reduce Your Investment Risk
Feb 23, 2010 Financial Investment
When it comes to investment, hedging is not a strange word. Though many of you have already heard of the name hedging, not many of you may be able to explain what hedging is. Without the ability to explain the term, I guess you have not yet participated in the hedging world, which actually can be useful to protect yourself. Let us now understand it.
Why do you need a hedge? It is because every investment is linked to certain level of risk, a hedge is your insurance that helps you reduce the risks. The higher the risk, the more likely the investors or the companies will enter into hedging. Different types of hedging are available and the common ones are foreign currency swap, interest rate swap, futures hedging and hedging for stock price.
The core objective for hedging is to reduce the risk instead of earns money. Therefore, what you would do is to invest in two products that are negatively correlated. In simpler term, that is when investment A earns money, investment B will lose money. The gain and the loss offset each other that your risk is minimized.
It always makes sense that, the higher the risk, the high the opportunity. When the risk is reduced by hedging, you can expect the highest possible earning to be reduced, too. But on the other hand, as the risk is reduced, when you are losing money, the amount that you are going to lose can be lesser.
Let me give you an example on interest rate swap. If you have a loan from the bank of $100,000 and the bank is charging you a floating interest rate (or market rate). You biggest concern must the increase in interest rate (”interest rate risk”), which than you have to pay more interest. To reduce the interest rate risk, you can enter into an interest rate swap with the bank.
As mentioned, the hedge reduces your risk and at the same time reduces your possible earning. Depending on how much risk that you wish to reduce, you can enter into swap that amounts to exactly $100,000 or you can just enter one that is $50,000. Let us now assume you have entered into a $100,000 interest rate swap that you receive floating interest income.
When the market rate goes up, you have to pay more for the loan, but on the other hand, you receive more from the interest rate swap. On the other hand, if the interest rate goes down, you pay less, but you receive less as your interest income. To note that, hedging may not help you eliminate the risk but only reduce, therefore, you cannot expect that the interest pay out should be exactly the same as interest income.
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