Back Testing Your Trading System-Know These Shocking Limitations

Your trading system needs thorough testing before you decide to trade live with it. A trading system might comprise of a set of indicators. You need to know how well your trading system and its set of indicators work in a particular market.

For this you can do back testing. Back testing is a method that uses historical data to test how well your indicators work in a particular market. You can use back testing software that enables you to look at the past market data and test how well the indicators and your trading system have worked in the past market.

Backtesting results are no guarantee that the trading system will perform well under live market conditions. Things that worked in the past might not work now. Similarly something that didn’t work in the past, may work now! You never know!There are many problems with historical data. There is no slippage in backtesting. Slippage is one of the most important problem that a trader faces while trading live. The other problem that the backtest ignores is the widening of spreads under volatile market conditions.

So when you look at back testing results, you should look at them with scepticism. But it doesn’t mean that backtesting is entirely useless! What we can say is that no two trades are exactly alike.

Back testing can give you a feel how a particular market behaves under certain conditions. Back testing can also spot you certain general characteristics of the market like the seasonal trends and market tendencies.

For example, some markets especially the commodities market is highly seasonal and cyclical in nature. We can take the example of agricultural commodities like wheat, grains,corn, cotton, coffee and stuff like that. In case of the stock market, there is much talk of the January Effect. Well, it is there no doubt about it. Some years, it is highly pronounced and others it is not that pronounced. Similarly stock prices tend to rise at the end of each month and the first few days of the new months. The reason for this is that many institutional investors tend to put the new funds to work at the end of the month and the beginning of the new month! Now in other markets, you might not find any seasonal trends. For example, there is very little seasonality in curreny market or the bond market.

Back testing can also help you establish the amount of time a particular market tends to run in a certain direction. For example, in case of US Dollar Index, its trend lines tend to last for months to years.

But to tell you the truth, backtesting can only give you a rough guess about the performance of the trading system under live trading conditions. There is no substitute for live trading results!

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How To Use Trend Following As A Market Strategy

Trend following is a market plan that takes benefit of both the ups and downs of the market. It’s a technique that employs risk management to minimize likely losses. Traders who employ trend following enter the market after a trend has been established, they do not try to predict trends. They determine how much to speculate in a specific issue based totally on the dimensions of the trading account and the stability of the issue.

Most trend disciples invest in sophisticated software that can be programmed to exit if the trend changes all of a sudden. Then the traders keep waiting and see if the trend reasserts itself before reinvesting. This is about following the already established pattern of certain stocks.

For a trend follower, its all about price. Although other things could be considered, price is all crucial. The amount of the investment is determined primarily by the price of the issue. The timing isn’t as critical as the price . Before commencing a trade, the trend supporter will have planned his exit technique. The timing for getting out whether the trade is a winner or a loser is more significant than the the timing for the buy. The software can be set at a destined stop loss point to avoid unsuitable losses.

These traders use their software to check trades before investing. The software can guage the hazards against the potential advantages of the transaction. The assorted factors relevant to the trade are programmed into the software and the trader makes his call based totally on the result of the test.

Outside events can have an unforeseen effect on market trends. Man made and natural disasters and political disturbance can have either a positive or negative result on the market. For instance, when Hurricane Katrina damaged and wrecked oil rigs and pipelines in the Gulf of Mexico, oil costs right away climbed replying to an anticipated lack. Although the lack never materialized, costs remained high for several months due to speculation in both the commodities and market.

The stock market is a gamble, though if you understand how to play the market, you get far better percentages than in Vegas. Trend following is one system which has proved successful for many investors, but it shouldn’t be a trader’s only technique. By combining trend following with other proven methods you will maximise your gains and minimize your losses. A diverse portfolio together with different strategies is the simplest way to beat the market.

In the stock exchange there’s no assured strategy for earning profits. It is necessary to have a plan or you will definitely lose money. Trend following should by one of several strategies you employ to maximise your gains and minimize your losses.

Find more on trend following service and trend following model.

Your Key to Success: Forex Autopilot

Shopping for foreign exchange tools should not really be hard because there are tons of these tools available online. However, with this number, some people are having difficulties screening which products actually work, which are ineffective and which are just made up by scammers trying to rip you off.

The first step is to check out products you are considering on scam, fraud and consumer complaint websites. This will eliminate the worst offenders. It may not give a you a complete picture. You’ll need to do your homework to find the best Forex robots.

Forex Autopilot is a program for traders that provides accurate and easy to understand information on Forex trading and gives great tips on the some of the subtleties of investing in this market. The product is clearly explained and the developer hasn’t resorted to unnecessary hype.

Forex Autopilot is a robot that works twenty four hours a day, even while you’re sleeping. It manages your investments and trades without you having to lift a finger. The program is designed to recognize and take advantage of all the trends in the market.

That is something that would never happen with Forex Autopilot. You would not only be informed of the benefits of this trading system especially for beginners, you will also be provided reasons why you would want to have a forex trading system that is running entirely on autopilot on your own.

The design of the website is clean and professional without a lot of unnecessary hoopla. The developer not only understands software, he understands Forex traders and this comes through on the site.

Some forex gurus or those scammers pretending to be have a really hard time presenting facts that are related to what they are trying to sell to customers. Also, have you noticed that most of the websites that seem like made by a scammer is an incompetent one? Pictures are not good and the website is poorly managed.

Since most traders aren’t computer geeks, you’ll appreciate, as I did, how easy the site is to navigate and use.

You should always check out products on scam, fraud and consumer complaint sites before investing. Forex software isn’t cheap and many of the sites peddling software are run by sales people, not programmers. These middle men often don’t even know what they’re selling. Forex Autopilot.com is run by a developer who understands software and trading.

The sales talk is not only filled with facts, in the website, there are also screen caps indicating the live trade that the customer has participated in. This would give interested customers a decent idea on what they can get from these forex robots.

The site owner even shares his own experiences with bad Forex software and explains how his program is different.

Not a lot of forex gurus have the humility to do that but for this man, it is different and he has happily shared his previous failures in his website in order to inspire others to become successful as well.

Find more about forex software or check this real user forex ambush review.

What Are Home Owners Rights during Foreclosure

We often see people get kicked out of their homes in the movies,unfortunately this doesn’t just happen in the movies. Home foreclosure is one of the greatest fears of families due to debt. Even though this is true we often take our bills for granted in favor of our credit cards. Before we know it bills have easily stacked up and we end up not knowing who to pay first to stop the calls.

Even though your house is being foreclosed there are still legal procedures to follow. Your lender can’t just kick you out of the house. There are laws that protect homeowners from these situations. Here are some of the important facts you need to know when facing a foreclosure.

Can I just get kicked out of the house if I fail to pay my mortgage?

Simply put: No. The mortgage lender/bank can only kick you out of the house with a court order. Before they can do that they also have to follow a set of legal procedures.

How long does the foreclosure take before they take my house?

Depending on the state and county the house is in, it can take as long as 6 months. In some cases the lender/bank may push for a faster foreclosure however, this is only when they have a new buyer in mind normally.

After the foreclosure, do I have to leave the house?

No you don’t have to. After the foreclosure auction ends the ownership will be transferred from you to the highest bidder. You will become a tenant of the house. The new owner must also follow legal procedures before he or she can evict you out of the house.

In some cases you can become just a “renter” to the new owner. (this is dependent on the new owner of course)

What happens when I get evicted?

Normally, the new owner of the house will send you a notice to leave the premises. The notice usually gives you 72 hours. If you fail to follow the notice the new owner must present his case to the court before a judge to get an order for you to be evicted. The judge will be the one to decide if you should be evicted or grant you more time. If you fail to follow the court order the new owner may procure an execution of the eviction order. this is when the sheriff shows up and escorts you from the property.

The sheriff will give you a notice of the execution and give you 48 hours to pack and leave. If you fail to follow the notice this is the time when the sheriff can physically move you out of the premises.

Doc Schmyz has invested all over the US. He built a free free website shares Real estate investing information for all over the US. Find real estate information by state

Safe and Sure Investment Property Profits

The layperson, or a non-businessman, has his or her best chance at money money through the field of real estate. This is because real estate is the easiest field in which you can acquire other people’s money, and it is the field in which a total loss of value is least likely.

Speculation versus Investment.

Speculating and investing are two different things. The first is based upon chance, much like a game of poker, while the second is based upon factual, quantitative data. Speculators can be just plain old gamblers, or they can be people who spend hours upon hours doing research. The problem with their research, however, is that it is non-quantitative data; therefore, their final determination is based upon their opinion and the opinion of others. An investor, on the other hand, makes sure that both safety and profit are as definite as possible. If these two factors are not there, or there is not enough data to support them beyond a reasonable doubt, then the investor considers the operation to be a speculative one.

Safety

Property has two values assigned to it: the intrinsic value and the price. The intrinsic value is what the property should be priced, while the price is what the property is actually priced. Investors are more concerned with the intrinsic value than the price. They watch the price until it drops significantly below the intrinsic value, and then they buy the property. Afterwards, the price no longer concerns them. If a market is so inflated that there are no prices below the intrinsic values, you should move to a different area, as speculation is the only strategy available in those areas.

Always remember that the market functions as a weighing machine in the long run; the price will rise to meet the intrinsic value. Also remember that it is only an estimate, it may not reach exactly the intrinsic value. Therefore, we should buy significantly below the intrinsic value, not just below it.

We have set the rule that one should not buy property except for property that is eighty percent or below the intrinsic value. This functions as a safety buffer for us. It is unlikely that the property will drop more than twenty percent in value in the period that we own it. But, if it does, we have a twenty percent “cushion” to lessen the damage.

To assure ourselves a profit, we must not rely on appreciation, for this is us relying on chance. As nobody has a crystal ball, this is a silly strategy. Let us find another way.

To assure us a profit, then, we will find a home that is structurally sound but in need of surface-level repairs. The price paid per square foot should be subtracted from the price of one would pay for new construction per square foot. Then, we estimate our repair costs, which must be half or less of the difference we just calculated. This serves to double or more our money upon repair. By buying property with this margin of safety and this repair strategy, we can be sure beyond any reasonable doubt that our investment will be both safe and profitable.

Learn how to create wealth with rental properties and property investing.

Forex Margin Call Explained

Many new forex traders all of sudden receive a margin call. Maybe they did not educate themselves properly about forex trading and started trading. Have you ever received the dreaded forex margin call? Whatever, you must be very clear about what is a forex margin call. But contrary to the popular opinion that a margin call represents that worst case scenario for the currency trader, this is far from the truth. The risk that is assumed when trading aggressively the currency markets often results in receiving a margin call. The worst case could be far worse.

To owe additional funds to the broker is actually the worse case scenario. A margin call is in fact a safeguard to protect a trader from losing 100% or even more of the money in the trading account. This uncomfortable position is largely avoided because of the existence of the margin call.

If you have been trading stocks you might have actually received a call or a text message from your stock broker that you need to add more funds to your trading account. So in stock trading, you will receive an actual call from your stock broker to add more funds to your margin account when equity is running low in your stock trading account. A margin call is not actually a physical call from your broker in forex trading unlike the world of stock trading.

This is what happens in forex trading when you get a margin call. There is no physical call telling you to add funds to your account. The trading platform software automatically closes out all the open positions and immediately realizes all losses at the prevailing market rates when a forex trader no longer has enough equity in the trading account to keep the open positions viable in forex trading. You might be thinking a cold hearted behavior of your forex broker.

Prices can move extremely fast in forex markets and because of the high leverage used, every price move is magnified. There are good reasons for automated margin calls in forex trading, although this may seem a bit cold hearted.

Therefore, when the traders equity runs low, the trading account can become depleted very quickly with not enough time to call for more funds. As a safeguard measure, the forex margin call closes all open positions to help ensure that the trader does not lose the entire account or worse.

Lets make it clear with an example. Suppose you have $1500 in your trading account. So exactly when is a margin call triggered? This depends exactly on the number and the size of the lots being traded, the leverage chosen and the equity in the account. Suppose you use a leverage of 100:1 to trade in standard lots of $100,000.

You want to trade one lot of EUR/USD. Since your account is in US Dollars, you need to convert it into Euros. Suppose the EUR/USD exchange rate is 1.3465. So you need $1346 to trade standard lot Euros 100,000 of EUR/USD. This is because Euros 1000 are needed to control Euros 100,000.

Suppose you are a new forex trader. You dont know much about forex trading. However you have read that it is a great opportunity to make money. Naturally you are very enthusiastic about trading forex as quickly as possible. So you dont know that stop losses are used to minimize downside risk in trading. You start trading without putting stop losses in place. Your trading account has $1500. The margin required to keep the trade open is $1346. Each pip is exactly equal to $10 in this case.

When your equity drops below $1346, you will receive a margin call. You have $1500 equity in your trading account. Your open position will be automatically closed when you receive a margin call. That means once you lose the excess equity in your account above the margin required to trade a standard lot that is $1500-$1346= $154. This is equal to 15.4 pips loss (assuming no spread).

Mr. Ahmad Hassam has done Masters from Harvard University. He is interested in day trading stocks and currencies. Try 1500 Pips a day Forex Signals. Discover a revolutionary Forex Robot Trading System!

Complementary Candlesticks Guide

Candlestick charting methods had been developed by Japanese rice traders hundreds of years back. However, candlesticks have become popular in the Western trading community especially the United States in the past decade.

Internet made possible the availability of online trading to retail trading. The advent of internet has leveled the playing field for traders whether they trade stocks, futures, options, commodities, precious metals or currencies. In the last two decades there have been seismic changes in the way people used to trade. Access to the market is now only one mouse click away. Trade just by clicking your mouse!

Market information is now in most cases freely available online. Internet has made commission rates dramatically lower. The result is that a whole generation of new traders and investors want to try their luck beating the market.

Can you beat the market? It depends if you are using the right tools. I am a great fan of candlesticks charting and I have seen many traders both new and professionals becoming die hard fans of candlestick charting. Why? Because candlestick charting is the best tool available.

There are many forms of charting techniques that have been developed over time. Why candlestick charting is superior to other forms of charting like the line charts, bar charts or point and figure charts? One of the best features of candlestick charting is its visual appeal and readability. You can glance at a candlestick chart and quickly gain an understanding of whats going on with the price action in the market.

Opening and closing price levels can be a very important area of support and resistance from day to day. You can easily spot and opening and closing price of a security or currency on a candlestick chart.

Have you ever heard names like Harami, hanging man, doji etc? Well these are the names of a few candlestick patterns. There are certain specific candlestick patterns that can help you identify when is the best time to buy, sell or wait on a trade or investment. This information can be extremely useful for short term traders like day traders and swing traders.

These candlestick patterns can be a real boon to your trading and you can combine them with other technical indicators for even more reliable results. Now in order to trade and invest effectively using candlestick charts you need to understand these candlestick patterns.

Patterns appear on the candlestick charts as simple, single stick occurrences or complex multi stick formations. Many different types of candlestick patterns can tell you what may lie ahead in the market.

You may use the information provided by candlestick patterns to decide when to get into a trade, when to get out of a trade or even when to hang unto a trade you are already in. This information can be highly valuable in knowing that the prevailing trend might reverse or continue.

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Understanding Position Trading (Part I)

Position trading is mostly done by big banks, hedge funds and institutional investors. There are four style of trading: Scalping, Day Trading, Swing Trading and Position Trading. Scalping is very short term like a few minutes. Day trading involves a time frame of less than a day. Swing trading is for a week or slightly more. Position trading is all about taking a directional market position and holding it as long as the trade makes sense from the trend standpoint. This means that positions are held for longer term.

In the fast moving world of forex trading, position trading may mean keeping a trade open from one week to a month to as long as a year or possibly more. Most individual and retail traders do not have the patience for position trading.

This is somewhat unfortunate as most retail traders dont have that patience to become successful position traders. Only those position traders who have the patience to stick with the trend and let their profits run are generally able to capitalize on these longer term price moves. Position trading can be one of the most profitable styles of trading due to the fact that many currencies tend to trend well on long term basis.

Position trading is unlike day trading or swing trading that relies almost exclusively on technical analysis and is based on short time frames. Due to its long term time frame, position trading tends to rely heavily on fundamental analysis along with longer term technical analysis.

As a forex trader, you must be aware that there are two type of analysis that is done to analyze the market forces, fundamental and technical. Fundamental analysis concerns itself with the economic forces that drive the major market movements. Fundamental analysis is geared towards longer term price forecasts rather than the swing to swing movements that are primarily the focus of technical analysis.

The general direction of change in the currency value over the long run is what interests the position traders. The economic forces that determine the long term trend of a currency include interest rates, inflation, GDP, unemployment and help to determine the value of the national currency overtime.

Position trading and trend trading both follow almost similar approaches. However, position traders often rely on fundamentals along with the technicals; trend traders are almost exclusively technical in nature.

As carry traders hold interest positive positions to benefit from both regular interest payments and exchange rate profits, carry trading can be considered a form of position trading. How do position traders decide which position to take?

Position traders establish positions on currency pairs according to their views and experience. Forex position traders weigh strength and weaknesses in currencies by taking various fundamental and technical factors into account.

Lets take an example. Suppose that a position trader has performed fundamental analysis on economic conditions surrounding the major currency pairs that involve the US Dollar on either side of the pair. The position trader is of the opinion keeping in view the present recession in the US economy that the US Dollar is indicating fundamental weakness going forward.

The position trader thinks that the Euro is showing significant fundamental strength at the same time that the US Dollar is showing weakness going forward. This opinion may have been based on the recent rate of economic growth, comments by the Federal Reserve Board (FED) Chairman or the President of European Central Bank (ECB), the state of ongoing recession, on the state of inflationary/deflationary pressure in the economy and so on.

Mr. Ahmad Hassam has done Masters from Harvard University. He is interested in day trading stocks and currencies. Try Strignano’s Forex Signals free. Discover a revolutionary Forex Robot Trading System!

Trading System Selection

When selecting a trading system, first try to paper trade it. You need to paper trade your trading system to get the bugs out. Paper trading is not a substitute for live trading but still you can assume that 75% of the results that you achieve in demo trading can be replicated in live trading.

Money management plan for your trading system is a must. A good money management plan will tell you how much you should risk on each trade with that trading system. For that to know you need two ratios. Win ratio and the payoff ration are two highly important figures to know for any trading system. Use the results of these paper trades to calculate your win ratio and payoff ratio. Determine what your personal win ratio and payoff ratio are in using that trading system over time.

Now in the case of a successful trader, it takes three to tango here. The trading system, your money management system and you yourself, all three of you have to gel together. The more profitable you will be over time, the stronger and more developed the relationship is between the three of you.

So for you to become a successful trader, a trading system is not enough. You need a good money management plan as well. Win ratio and the payoff ratio are required in developing a sound money management plan that will work hand in hand with that trading system. What can be the best parameters to selecting your trading system? When selecting your trading system, use these five parameters:

1) Trade entries in the trading system are defined by market price activity, key support and resistance levels, volume and volatility dynamics and not on random and spontaneous decisions.

2) Before you enter the trade, the trading system is supposed to tell about the stop loss. The initial stop loss exit is determined before entering your trade.

3) Trade exits are determined by market price activity, key support and resistance levels, volume and volatility dynamics and fundamental rules, not on any arbitrary dollar loss that you feel comfortable with.

4) A new trader should always paper trade in the beginning. But the importance of paper trading for experienced traders does not diminish in any way either. You must not underestimate the importance of paper trading though it is not a substitute for live trading. Your trading system has been adequately paper traded or live traded and you have determined your personal statistical performance. You need to know your win ratio and the payoff ratio.

Some traders would like to use the win ratio and the payoff ratio achieved by the other traders. Do not rely on the results that the other got with that trading system. Use the actual results that you attained while using that trading system in calculating your win ratio and the payoff ratio.

Do not try to rely on computer back tested results. Your personal performance results are the real results that matter. You cannot depend on computer results and other traders results.

5) This is very important. Your trading rules should be written out step by step in sequence so that the entries and exits are consistent, clear and above all quantifiable. This makes your trading mechanical and emotions free.

One perfect example of a rule based trading system is the Turtle Trading System. Have you ever heard of the Turtle Trading System? You must read the story of the Turtle Trading Experiment. Turtle Trading System was developed for the commodities futures market.

The story of Turtle trading rules is very interesting. The creators of that trading system had a discussion one day. One was of the opinion that great traders are born. The other said great traders can be made.

So a number of completely new traders were selected to teach them those rules and see if they could become successful traders. Many succeeded with this trading system and became highly successful traders.

Mr. Ahmad Hassam is a Harvard University Graduate. Know Forex Charts! Try This 1500 Pips A Day Forex Signal Service! Get a totally unique version of this article from our article submission service

US Dollar Currency Profile (Part III)

United States was known to have one of the safest and the most developed capital markets in the world. As the risk of severe United States instability was considered to be very low, US Dollar was considered one of the premier safe haven currencies in the world prior to September 11.

Almost 76% of the global currency reserves were in US Dollar. This allowed United States to attract investments from all over the world at a discounted rate of return. Foreign investors and the Central Banks are not so sure about the US Dollar due to the increased US uncertainty like the present recession and decreasing interest rates.

China pegs its currency to US Dollar. China has been accused by the United States many times of using this practice to keep its national currency artificially weak in order to boost its exports. There are many other developing and emerging countries that peg their local currencies to US Dollar. China is a very active participant of the global currency markets because its maximum float per day is controlled within a narrow band based on the previous days closing US Dollar rates. Any fluctuations beyond this band will invite intervention by the Chinese Central Bank that may include buying and selling US Dollars. Important countries that peg their currencies to US Dollar are China and Hong Kong.

EU represents a market as large as US with its own single currency Euro. The emergence of Euro is also threatening the US Dollar as the worlds premier reserve currency. Euro has provided an alternative to the US Dollar. With the passage of time, it is feared that Euro will emerge as a strong challenger to the dominance of US Dollar. Recently a group of countries like China, France and others have called for the introduction of a new global reserve currency by the IMF that should replace the US Dollar. If this happens in the next few years, it may have far reaching implications of the US Dollar and the US economy.

Many central banks have already begun to diversify their foreign exchange reserves by reducing their US Dollar holdings and increasing their holdings in Euro and the gold. The interest rate differentials between the US Treasuries and foreign bonds are followed by the professional forex traders with keen interest. It can be a very strong indicator of potential currency movements because the US markets are the largest markets in the world and the investors all over the world are very sensitive to the yields offered by the US assets.

Market participants also closely watch the US Dollar Index as an indicator of overall US Dollar strength or weakness. The USDX is a futures contract traded on the New York Board of Trade (NYBOT). It is important to follow this index because when the market analysts are talking of general US Dollar weakness, they are referring to this index.

US Dollar is also impacted by the US Stocks and Bond markets. Cross border merger and acquisitions are also very important for forex traders to watch.

The following economic indicators are important for the US Dollar: Employment, Nonfarm payrolls, Consumer Confidence, Retail Sales, Consumer Price Index, Produced Price Index, GDP, International Trade, Employment Cost Index, Industrial Production, TIC Data etc.

Mr. Ahmad Hassam is a Harvard University Graduate. He is interested in day trading stocks and currencies. Try Strignano’s Forex Signals free. Discover a revolutionary Forex Robot Trading System!